After a Pleasant Day a Cool Night Ahead

A pleasant day with low dew points and temperatures in the low 80s away from the lake we have another pleasant night ahead. Great weather for sleeping and having the windows open. More great weather ahead for Saturday. Sunday could be a different story with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Rain chances will increase from early in the day Sunday into Sunday night and Monday. Rainfall totals are expected to remain less than impressive. 

Isaias Rain Fall Estimates

Rain fall totals from Isaias Look to remain mostly off the Us Mainland through the next 5 day period as Isaias works its way northward along the Atlantic Coast. Bahamas will see the most extensive rainfall based on this forecast. 

Evening Tropical Update

Isaias has split on satellite imaging into an asymmetrical system and has broken into multiple parts so it will be interesting to see how development and stability of the system will remain now as it is asymmetric. If it stays as a hurricane seeing how it is now it maybe downgraded to a tropical storm. Watches and advisories are up for the Bahamas and Florida and other parts of the US mainland. As it makes the turn to the north near Georgia and South Carolina coasts the storm will decrease in intensity as it moves north out of the warmest Tropical Atlantic waters. 

Cooler Weather Now, When Will the Heat Return

If your saying hey I’m enjoying this cooler weather and am glad the heat is out of here. Well your about to be disappointed because the longer range computer guidance shows that we have a good chance of some hot weather ahead after we come out of this brief cool pattern. Time frame is from August 8th through 15th. These graphics show what are called 500mb height fields or looking at atmospheric thicknesses the larger the numbers the warmer and thicker the atmosphere. Typically when you get number above 585 you get mid to upper 80s and low 90s and the higher the number Climbs so to climbs the chance at 90 degree temperatures. 

Atlantic Hurricane Season Revs Up Moving Into August

Tropical Disturbances currently in Atlantic. We see Hurricane Isaias moving towards us mainland and then we have 40% area development near lesser Antilles and then we also now have tropical depression 10 near the Cape Verde Islands next to African continent. Many areas to keep eyes on these potential systems. 

Record High Temps In Western US

Death Valley, CA 125

Palm Springs, CA 122

Needles, CA 121 

Thermal, CA 120

Borrego, CA 120

Tuzigoot National Monument, AZ 115 

Kingman, AZ 112

Pendelton, OR  110

Yakima, WA 105 

Salt Lake City, UT 104

Provo, UT 104 

Anaheim, CA 97

These are the more notable places with record high temperatures Today on the Last day of July 

Are Summers Getting Warmer in Phoenix

Since the beginning of the Climate Record in Phoenix AZ we see a trend that the the long term Graph shows that the weather is getting warmer over the long term climactic avg. This is seen in not only in the High Temperature Avg and Low Temperature. Very noticeable in the overnight Lows category.  

How Does July 2020 Compare to Normal

July 2020 compared to normal has had a large surplus on Departure from Normal July Temperatures. The South West, Southern Great Lakes and Large Eastern Section of the Appalachians and North East have experienced quite the hot July.  

Ranking all time Warmest Months in Phoenix

Here are the warmest ranking months in Phoenix AZ. Climate Records go back to the late 1800s 

Phoenix Breaking Records

Phoenix AZ records hottest month on record based on all temperature data that has been collected over the month. Even before the day is completed today there is not a possibility that it will sink to second place. 

Autumnal Morning in North Woods

Chilly temperatures last night for sections of northern Wisconsin The UP and Interior Sections of of Northern Lower Michigan. Temperatures dipped into the low

40s with stations like Kenton MI recording a low of 44 degrees. Other near by stations of Iron Wood MI recorded a 46 degree low. These temperatures are more September like rather than end of July like. Temperatures will remain pleasant for the next 7 days with comfortable humidities outside of the rain chances Sunday and Monday. Happy Friday all 

Beautiful Day Ahead

Friday looks to be a gorgeous day with a mix of sunshine and clouds after coming off overnight Low temperatures in the lower 60s to upper 50s across northern Illinois. The day will be pleasant with manageable humidity and temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Precipitation chances remain low until Sunday and Monday. 

Record High Temps from Thursday

Many Record High Temperatures Fell on Thursday July 30th 2020. Here is a fairly long list of Record High Temperature Sites that had the previous records broken. 

 

NEEDLES, CA                              (120)

PHOENIX, AZ                               (118)

TAZIGOOT NTL MONUMENT      (114)

KINGMAN, AZ                               (110)

PENDLETON, OR                         (109)

EL PASO, TX                                 (109)

WALA WALA, WA                          (108)

HANKSVILLE, UT                          (106)

WINSLOW AZ                                (105)

WINNEMUCCA, NV                       (105)

YAKIMA, WA                                  (104)

ELKO, NV                                      (103)

PRESCOTT AIRPORT                  (101)

BAKER, OR                                   (101)

FLAGSTAFF, AZ                            (92)

Just some of the more notable Record High Temperatures from Thursday. Expect more record High temperatures to fall Friday and over the weekend. 

Western Us Record High Temperatures Fall As Heat Wave Gets Under Way

Record high temperatures were recorded from Washington State to the Central Valleys of Southern California and Arizona. Places such as needles Reached. 120 degrees and Phoenix At 118. These were some of the more notable high temperatures. A morning round of all the finalized record highs will provide a more complete list of records. 

Late Night Tropical Update

Isaias has officially become a hurricane in the Atlantic. The storm will gain some strength as it churns northward in the Atlantic along the gulf stream. The track appears to not have changed from previous update earlier in the day. As the guidance earlier in the day said it would remain a tropical storm from the hurricane center and my thoughts that were it would be come a hurricane which it has. 

Phoenix AZ Sets New Daily Record High Temperature

As of 514 pm Mountain Standard Time Phoenix Az Broke the Record High Temperature of 115 degrees set back in 1934. The new Daily Record high Temperature for the date is 118 degrees. It is hard pressed to get into this record territory. The Hottest temperatures ever reached in Phoenix was 122 degrees so 118 is close to the top 5 all time warmest days in Phoenix, AZ 

122 June 26 1990

121 July 28 1995 

120 June 25 1990 

119 June 20 2017 

119 June 29 2013 

Isaias Wind Field Expected to Grow

Here are the wind fields that are going to be associated with the storm system. The higher velocity wind speeds are associated located in the darker colors. Those are the areas where you would expect to see the highest most intense winds in the system. This is the forecast over the next coming days. 

When will Isaias Arrive Along The Coast

Are you wondering when Isaias Will arrive in your area well here are some estimated times of when the tropical system will be impacting regions of the eastern seaboard. As you see from the time stamps it will spen a good amount of time around the south east US. Before it will begin to accelerate as it passes the Carolinas Monday morning according to this time frame map. 

Isaias To Become A Hurricane

The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida has in their early evening update adjusted the guidance on Tropical Storm Isaias. According to the guidance packages put forth and data gathered from satellite instruments along with the hurricane hunter mission planes they are predicting by Saturday Isaias becomes a Hurricane. Storm watches and warnings are able to be seen in the different color shaded regions. Track remains going up the East Coast of the United States. With the increase in the strength and possible size of the system Rain fall and winds as well as storm surge with flooding are expected to be more impactful as a hurricane vs a tropical storm. More updates to come later on Isaias. 

7 Day Precipitation Accumulations

In our 7 day rain fall assessment from the Hydrological 

Services division at the National Weather Service, Chicago is still in a limited precip are where we would still see 1/2” area. Southern sections of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Ozark's, and the Tennessee valley. Atlantic Coast from Florida to Massachusetts will be inundated with rain. Most of the precipitation along the eastern seaboard will be from Isaias. Accumulations should run along the east coast from 2-5”. 

Estimated Rain Fall Days 1-5

Here is the next 5 day total expected rain fall and we see there is little rain over the western us where the heat will blaze on for many days. Chicago is still in that 1/2” area so not a ton of rain over 5 days. We see the mid central valleys of Tennessee and Kentucky over run with rain that will cause some potential flooding In many areas. Atlantic Seaboard most of the rain is from Isaias and shows up from Florida through most of the Carolinas Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula up into the BIG Apple. We will show what the 7 day total qpf map shows. It will be fairly similar. 

Next 3 Day Rain Accumulations

Here are the rain fall totals expected across the Unties states at this time over the next 3 day period of time. The area that is most concerning is the Tennessee Valley. Flood will be fairly likely thorough the region. The Atlantic Coast line of the US is going to be dealing with Isaias tropical storm rain fall, thus you see all the brighter colors showing up on the map. Tropical systems are great rain producers due to all the water that is picked up along the journey over the ocean unti the system interacts with land. 

Rain Chances Limited

Rain chances stay very limited through the next 7 days models all show rain will stay well South of the Chicago Metro Area. Other areas along the Atlantic Coast and Tennessee Valley are In for a rough go of it. They might need the boats as they say due to all the expected rain they are anticipating. 

Comfortable Conditions Ahead

After starting with quite muggy conditions early this morning conditions have turned much more pleasant and less humid. As we see by the plot of dew point temperatures by middle to late next week we will see a very comfortable air mass move into place and give a 10 day break from the real heat and humidity. We are by no means are we done with the heat and humidity For the year yet. Not by a long shot. 

Tropical Trouble Brewing

More trouble appears to be brewing out near the Cape Verde Islands. Another piece of tropical energy has come off the African coast in the ITCZ the international tropical convergence zone. We are uncertain where that area marked with the yellow X will go and develop and be steered by the steering winds. 

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Field

This is Isaias Tropical Storm Force Wind Field. That’s expect to impact the regions and shaded in probabilities and impact that it is expected to have. 

Tropical Storm Isaias Sets Eyes on East Coast

The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida with their forecast is keeping Isaias a tropical storm for the duration of its current 5 day track. After it passes the larger of the islands in the tropical Atlantic I have a feeling that once it get closer to Bermuda and the us mainland Isaias will strengthen into a hurricane. What category of storm is yet to be seen. The Gulf Stream that runs along the east coast of United States can add a lot of fuel to the fire for tropical systems along with non warm core systems like nor easters. This is why my thinking is such on this storm. 

A Muggy Cloudy Start

Clouds have greeted us this morning and will hopefully give way to some sunshine later in the day. The dew points are still relatively high in the upper 60s and they will be going down through out the day and over the next 7 days. They may get as low as the upper 40s so some really nice north woods type air. 

Tropical update; We have a new Tropical storm

As of this evening update Tropical Cyclone 9 has been officially upgraded and Named as Tropical Storm Isaias. The National Hurricane Center has shifted the track of the system from earlier runs that kept taking the system west and further west on previous runs now takes it back out east along the Atlantic coast line of the mainland US. Interaction with land masses and unfavorable wind shear has kept this system from turning into a behemoth of a storm that can typically occur this time of year. TimIng,  track, and come of uncertainty are displayed on the map as well as the warnings and advisories. If anything changes on Isaias I will provide more updates as they become available. 

Where is the Rain ? Is any on the way ?

July is running below normal for most of Northern Illinois and most places could really use the rain. The rain showers that have occurred have been low coverage at best and have hit places very sporadically and missed others. Rain chances look slim to none over the next 7 days. 

Muggy now will we get some relief ?

After a humid day around northern Illinois we are going to see the dew points decrease and stay in a fairly comfortable range over the next week to 10 days. By no means we should consider our selves done with the heat or humidity. But on our model comparison analyzer we see the dew point temperatures in fairly good agreement from the multiple computer models and staying fairly comfortable and out beyond 5 days we see some disagreement but that is expected. 

Where are the temperatures headed the next 7 days

After a hot day where the official reporting station reached a 91 degree high. That made it the 21st 90 of the year. In a normal year we see about 14 90s at the official reporting station. Temperatures are in a downward trend in the next 7 days where most told the days will avg below normal but that’s not the worst thing in the in the summer time as you often get pleasant weather instead of oppressive heat and humidity. 

Chicago adds to 90 Degree Day Tally

The temperature prediction came up a bit short today we were forecasting about 87 or 88 degrees today but wouldn’t you know it we surprisingly pushed the mercury above the 90 degree mark today for the 21st time this season. I did not believe that we would make 90 today with the intermittent cloud cover today. Today marks the end of a streak of above normal temperatures as tomorrow will be about 10-15 degrees cooler today in the area and we can expect cooler condition in the mid 70s near the Chicago lake shore. 

Scattered showers popping up this afternoon

Showers and storms as predicted in scattered fashion are popping up across the area storms will remain typical garden variety type. No severe storms to be expected. On the radar image you can see the breeze being pushed inland by the NE winds pushing up against the warm southerly winds that brought the last of the warmth and humidity for awhile. These localized pop up storms will be moving south over the next several hours. If you do get under one of these showers you may pick up a quick 1/2” to 1” under one of these. Hope to provide a rain fall tally later this evening recapping rain fall totals. 

Western Europe set To Broil

Many sections of western Europe will be set to broil as a pattern change that will bring heat to areas of Europe that bring temperatures of 32-41 C which is well into the mid 90s to well above 100 degrees by US temp metrics. Heat is expected to last several days in western Europe. England is not used to heat of this magnitude. 

Morning Tropical Update

The Tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin is still unorganized enough where it has not been officially named yet. It is still being called tropical cyclone 9. The track has also move west some more since the previous post on this last night when it appeared as Florida may be Affected and now not so. The track takes the storm into the gulf which could spell big trouble if it make it into a favorable environment with deep warm ocean water some of the warmest in the world. Conditions aloft are preventing it from getting its act together and forming into a more formidable Storm. The National Hurricane Center maintains that this will only be a tropical storm vs growing into a monster hurricane. Also land interaction is also assisting in that. 

Western Heat To Grow in Coming Days

The Weather is about To turn hot and in some instances dangerously so for parts of the south western us as well as parts of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. It appears as though some records may fall in areas in coming days with the heat that had been taking up residence here but a pattern change with a large scale latitude blocking patten that will bring cooler below normal temperatures in our region with the jet stream and steering winds coming in from Canada for the next 5-7 days. 

The dark red / magenta color is excessive heat warnings , the brighter pink is fire danger and the orange areas that will all probably expand are heat advisories. 

Late Evening Tropical Update

The early day and mid evening update the storm remains unorganized and categorized as tropical cyclone 9. The track has shifted slightly westward from the track early in the day and mid evening. The track is towards the west affecting more of the island land masses and expected to impact the west coast of Florida opposed to the east side or up the middle of the Florida peninsula. Hurricane Hunters surveyed the storm with their instrumentation plane taking data. Storm may become more organized as more favorable conditions develop. Storm still bares watching. National Hurricane Center expects this to remain only as a tropical storm at this time.  

Mid Evening Tropical Update

A mid evening tropical update on cyclone 9 as of 8pm AST Atlantic Standard Time the storm remains unorganized and has not been named as it remains classified generically as a tropical cyclone. We will monitor to see if at a later evening update there is any progression on a name or more organized formation. The track remains approximately the same and affecting the lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispañola, Cuba and eventually the United States. 

A near picture perfect day here in Chicago today. The temperature was just a touch above the range we forecast today missing the forecast by 1 degree after we went 88 and the temperature was 89 degrees. We just missed the 21st 90 of the year. Tomorrow looks like the area should top out between 84-86 degrees. Showers are a slight possibility with them only covering 20-30% of the area if that. We look at temperatures to decline to very comfortable conditions later in the week. Humidity should be very comfortable by late July and Early August standards. Next best chance at rain after Wednesday looks to be Sunday but rain still looks sporadic even then. 

Active Tropical Season Continues With 9th Atlantic Basin Cyclone

The tropics have been very active this year with 8 names storms already to this point in the season. We are expecting the 9th named Storm to be named probably later today Tuesday July 28th. Currently named Cyclone 9. The National Hurricane Center shows this track of where they anticipate that the cyclone may go. The lesser Antilles, Hispañola, Cuba and eventually the US mainland along the east coast of Florida. Will have to watch and monitor what the system does. We will update that information here when it becomes available. 

Rain chances through Thursday

As you can see from the map the rain chances look to be slim to none according to the forecast model. This is the HRRR model which is a high resolution model that gives a depiction over the local close in area. And through Thursday there is just not a whole lot of rain expected very scattered if anything. 

A Beautiful Day Ahead

Good Tuesday morning a beautiful cool start to the day with bright blue sun filled skies, great temperatures and humidity. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s through the day before a stray pop up thunderstorm may dot the area. Scattered storms look possible over the next several days but no large organized storm systems over the next few days. Pleasant conditions almost all of the next several days. Temperatures will be warmer than normal Wednesday in the mid 80s and then below normal temperatures lock in after that bringing in some pleasant air. 

Wet Spring Weather and Summers Heat Yield Results

The wet weather from the spring time and the on set of summers heat has yielded some big results. These results are evident from yields that are being produced In my garden and most others gardens as well. 

Cherokee purple is a great deep flavored tomato that grows well in size susceptible to cracking but the flavor is unbelievable and has lots of meat 

The Pink caps is like brandy wine will be a pink fleshy tomato. Great size and taste soil fertilizer and soil amendments make the difference 

These three are called beefy boy a hybrid of what appears between big boy and beefsteak 

This wet spring and hot summer has for sure produce great yields in this garden 

Monday Turns Pleasant Late In Day

A day that started out quite cloudy humid and gloomy turned fairly nice late in the day today. Temperatures rose into the middle 80s as predicted with a high of 86 degrees. We have a cool night on the way for areas outside of the metro urban heat island. Temperatures tonight should hold to the mid 60s near the city and O'hare. Places in the outlying areas should find them selves into the low 60s to upper 50s in the coolest locations. Tomorrow looks nice most of the day as we will see more humidity than the late dat period Monday. Storms are also possible but will be fairly widely scattered in variety. Temperatures should be between 85-88 degrees Tuesday. 

Dew Points On The Way Down

Dew point temperatures have remained high for a good portion of the day Monday through about lunch time but take a look on how these dew points begin to decrease and as they do it will make it much more pleasant outside than the muggy oppressive humidity we have been in the last several days. Time stamps are noon 2pm 3pm showing still fairly muggy / humid. The bottom right panel is 6pm approximately and shows the really muggy air getting out of here. 

Shelf Cloud incoming 1min Sequence

This was the incoming shelf cloud that came in last night and each picture is a step In time 1min increments